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Will Yamana Gold (AUY) Disappoint Investors in Q2 Earnings?

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Yamana Gold, Inc. is set to release second-quarter 2016 results after the market closes on Jul 28.

Yamana has posted an average positive earnings surprise of 25% in the trailing four quarters. Its adjusted loss for first-quarter 2016 was 3 cents per share as against a loss of 4 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

For first-quarter 2016, Yamana Gold’s production was 308,061 ounces of gold – a 3% increase year over year due to a 61% growth at Jacobina, 8% at Canadian Malartic, 54% at Fazenda Brasileiro and 14% at Pilar mines.

For 2016, Yamana Gold will continue to focus on operational execution, mainly tracking or exceeding operational guidance, as it advances efforts to create further value within its portfolio. First-quarter operational performance was in line with expectations and the company is well positioned to deliver on production and cost guidance for the full year.

Production is expected to improve throughout the year, with the second-half production anticipated to be higher than the first half.

The company is targeting persistent production growth and will continue to evaluate opportunities for optimizations and other operational improvements across its portfolio to boost its production profile. It will also continue to pursue organic production growth opportunities from the Cerro Moro project, Chapada expansion, Canadian Malartic developments, Monument Bay project, Kirkland Lake opportunities and the Deep Carbonates project at Gualcamayo. In addition, the company remains committed to advance developments within its Brio Gold division over the course of 2016, as it focuses on how these assets best contribute to shareholder value.

Yamana Gold remains committed to debt reduction and cost improvements. Following net debt reduction of roughly $286 million during 2015, the company plans to further cut debt by at least $300 million between 2016 and 2017. This will be achieved through organic generation of cash flow and other available means.

The company believes in maintaining a strong balance sheet and ensuring financial flexibility through the prudent use of its revolving credit facility. Furthermore, the debt maturity profile remains very manageable and well positioned, especially in the short- to medium-term with a total of $113 million scheduled debt payments by the end of 2017.

YAMANA GOLD INC Price and EPS Surprise

YAMANA GOLD INC Price and EPS Surprise | YAMANA GOLD INC Quote

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Yamana is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Yamana is -66.67%  as the Most Accurate estimate stands at 1 cent and the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 3 cents.

Zacks Rank: Yamana holds a Zacks Rank #2, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s negative ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials sector you may want to consider, as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Huntsman Corporation (HUN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.84% and a Zacks Rank #1.

FMC Corp. (FMC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.48% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Alamos Gold, Inc. (AGI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +100% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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